Events Calendar

Understanding Uncertainties using Scenario Planning
Wednesday 25 April 2018, 06:00pm - 07:15pm
Contact Please confirm your presence by Friday, April 20th, 2018 to Celina Ma at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Understanding Uncertainties using Scenario Planning
Application in a Capital Project Context

Guest Speaker: Henk Krijnen,

                              Managing partner, NavIncerta


Henk Krijnen, completed a career of 35 years with Shell. His work took him to Indonesia, Thailand, the United States and the Netherlands. During his last five years with the company he served in Shell’s Corporate Strategy and Planning Department, well known for the Shell Scenarios.
In 2015 he left Shell and founded NavIncerta, a company aiming to assist organizations with improving their capabilities in the analysis of uncertainty and risk at the project level as well as within the broader strategic

Scenario planning is a strategic method that some organizations use to come to grips with the broader contextual uncertainties that the organization faces when making strategic or major investment decisions. It is a way to better understand the complexity of the future business environment. As such, the scenario narratives that result from such exercises may be referred to as ‘memories of the future’. They provide a meaningful framework for discussing the key trends in the contextual environment and their implications for business decisions.

Although the origins of scenario planning application date back to the fifties of the previous century, the method has been pioneered for application in business by Royal Dutch Shell in the 1970s. The company thus has a long tradition in using scenario planning in support of strategic thinking. A recent example is the focus on energy transition which has partly evolved from the scenario work that was conducted in 2011-2013.


  • Overview of scenario planning.
  • Interrelation of scenario planning with decision making.
  • Application in mega projects.
  • Examples of use, including in Canadian context.

The presentation will be in English

Location 455 René-Lévesque Blvd. West, Montreal, Quebec, Canada H2Z 1Z3 Room 304A
Refreshments from 5:15 pm Meeting from 6:00 to 7:15 pm

Cost: AACEI and PMI Members:$25 Students:$15 Non-Members:$35
AACEI Montreal Section